How REAL Game Theory Can Work For You!

If I’m going to take over for Miggidy Mack I should begin by totally lambasting him.  I liked the article he wrote but it was actually game PLAY theory he was discussing.  So how about we talk about REAL game theory.  Let’s start with the basics!

The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy says:  Game theory is the study of the ways in which strategic interactions among rational players produce outcomes with respect to the preferences (or utilities) of those players, none of which might have been intended by any of them.

Agents & Minigames

Game Theory uses the term Agents in place of players, but they are basically the same thing in any tabletop game.  Each player has a “preference” for an outcome, usually victory.  This can be broken down smaller, however.  The term “mini-game” refers to a game within a game.  The players still have preferences (win the assault, maneuver out of range) and those preferences effect the larger game.

The assault mini-game, for instance, is one of Odds and Chance.  We can do the math hammer to determine the likely hood of an event, but there is still a chance the numbers will not go in your favor.  The game has very few decisions at first glance, but when decisions need to be made they are very important.  Choosing whether or not to put attacks on an independent character or how to move models into an assault (or assault multiple units) can drastically complicate things.  These decisions are made and then the results are discovered.  It’s a gamble, although one whose odds are easily discernible.

Zero Sum vs. Non-Zero Sum

Zero Sum refers to a game where every interaction with the rules results in one player losing a set amount and another player gaining that same amount.  Poker is a great example, as one player gains $10 all the other players must have lost an amount totaling exactly $10 (ignoring the houses cut).

40k is NOT a zero sum game.  Players have a resources (units) and they can only lose them.  While it certainly puts my opponent at an advantage to deplete my resources, it does not give him more resources.  This is why “resources gain” is so rare in 40k, and why units like the Tervigon are considered so powerful… and such a big game changer.

Metagaming

Metagaming is the biggest factor in the tournament scene.  It refers to any strategy or course of action that transcends the rules.  When we build army lists this is typically our biggest concern.  Assume a tournament will have about 16 players consisting of: 4 space marines, 3 orks, 2 chaos marines, 2 guard, 2 tyranid, 1 space wolves, 1 daemonhunters and 1 eldar  With that break down the player is able to rationalize that half the players have a 3+ armor save, and that weapons capable of breaking through the save are important to his success at a tournament.

The metagame choices are not so simple, however.  If there is a large amount of terrain on the table, and 4+ cover saves will be common then weapons that have a higher volume of shots and a higher strength will yield better results over the course of a tournament.  If 2 of the marine players are running all scout lists then the choices change again.

Your choice of army further complicates the issue!  You have to assume other players are making the same decisions you are making and build your list to take cause their army list to be less effective against you, knowing what choices they are making.  As groups of players adjust their lists after each tournament to account for this information the metagame revolves.  Players buy new units and adjust.

Comp Scores attempt to stagnate the metagame, which only serves to make one army (whichever abuses the comp scores best) more powerful.  This is why discussions on forums are so important.  You have to create demographic overviews and build an army list to incorporate that information.

Here are a few books on Game Theory if this sparks your imagination.  I highly recommend:

Game Theory: A Nontechnical Introduction for beginners or those who haven’t had statistics.

Rock, Paper, Scissors for ways to actually apply game theory to Warhammer 40k and other games.

Game Theory: Analysis of Conflict is great for 40k as well, although a bit theoretical at times for what you’re probably wanting.

Strategy: An Introduction to Game Theory is for those who want to have a college reference book on hand with tons of examples.  This book is for serious math heads and those who really want to dig their teeth into something academic.  It’s also like 70 bucks… it doesn’t fuck around.